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I adore the polls on the election, but in the interests of sanity and an attempt to get a balanced view, I generally only take the Gallup polls with any seriousness. They are impartial, and reach a wider spread of voters than, say, the Fox News poll.

Today though, I was reading news articles published 30 minutes apart that put Obama anything from 5 points to 14 points ahead, according to the "polls".

I wish to make the following points, and anyone who is thinking that Obama is home and hosed and that they can stay slouched on the couch with their face in a pizza watching it on CNN instead of actually, you know, VOTING, had better read this.

1. Polls are a measure of the popular vote. The election is decided on electoral college votes. Iapos;m sure I donapos;t need to remind anyone how Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 yet lost the election. Hillary supporters will certainly remember how there was strong evidence that she won the popular vote in the primaries, yet lost the nomination. Therefore, the polls are intrinsically inaccurate.

2. Gallup (possibly the most accurate and impartial of them all) had Obama up by 10 points a week ago. Today, that lead has narrowed to 6 points. Now, itapos;s too early for the final debate to be a factor, more likely, it is a reflection on poll data that has come in from polling conducted last week in the swing states such as Nevada and Colorado.� That lead is narrowing, folks.

3. In early October 2000, Al Gore had a double digit lead over Bush. He lost. Likewise, for much of September and October, Kerry had a pretty fair lead over Bush. He lost.

4. The same voting machines that gave Al Gore NEGATIVE 16,000 votes in Florida in 2000 are still in use in Colorado and Florida and maybe elsewhere that I donapos;t know about. I doubt theyapos;ve fixed the problems in the meantime.

5. The Bradley Effect. In 1982, Tom Bradley was running for governor of California and was expected to win by a large margin. The polls gave him a lead of between 9 and 22 points.� He lost. One widely accepted theory for his loss is that people will say to a pollster that yes, they will vote for the black man so as not to appear racist. But in the little booth, with no one looking over their shoulder or judging them on their racism, they tick the white manapos;s box. Bradley lost by over 100,000 votes from a seemingly unassailable position.

So, people, go and vote.� It ainapos;t over yet.

I�voted today via the FWAB. Mailed it off to the (correct) address in Denver. A word to anyone voting absentee from overseas (particularly in Oz) who plans on using Fedexapos;s free (in Oz anyway) Express Your Vote service: I�was planning to send my vote via Fedex. Visited the net cafe, printed out the airbill, trotted down to my Fedex depot, put it all in properly and they wouldnapos;t take it. It wouldnapos;t scan. I queried as to why, and they called up Fedex for me. Seems the Express Your Vote is only free if you take it to a one of their main depots (of which there is only ONE�In Melbourne, which is in the arse-end of Sunshine, about a 45 minute drive each way for me). So, donapos;t rely on that. Allow time for the mail.

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